The Geopolitics of Oil: What's Ahead?

Look Behind the Headlines
One need only look beyond the headlines of the corporate-dominated media to see where the centre of gravity of world geopolitics will be for the next few decades: the middle east. Indeed, General John Abizaid's comment that the U.S. military would be in the theatre of the middle east for the next 50 years should come as little surprise.

What if Oil Production has peaked?
By looking at a few widely-accepted statistics about global oil supplies, it should become clear what kinds of challenges states will have along the road to finding alternative energy sources to fuel the economic growth that has allowed civilization to grow geometrically.

OPEC Oil Production to surpass NON-OPEC Production in 2008
In 2008, it is widely accepted that OPEC oil production will surpass non-OPEC oil production to make up 51% of world oil supplies. This percentage will increase rapidly as non-OPEC production continues to decline. The problem is that OPEC oil production will peak around 2020 and by 2012, world oil production is expected to decline precipitously and then every year at a higher rate of decline. Overstatement of oil reserves might result in a peak in middle eastern production much earlier than 2020 which will mean that the slope of decline in production will be even quicker.

A Chain Reaction of Demand for Oil
For world economies to continue their growth, they will be placed in growing competition for access to the last remaining reserves of oil in the world which are found in the middle east. If the U.S. were to use only its own oil to meet its needs, it would run out of oil in 3 years. Relying on it own oil, Europe would be the next to run out of oil, then Russia, and finally China.

The relative need for oil of these 4 consumers and the timing of their running out of reserves if they were to rely solely on their own supplies suggests possible timing of their efforts to secure supplies of middle eastern oil. The U.S., one could argue, has acted first by occupying and attempting to stabilize Iraq. Europe may be expected to play a bigger role in the middle east attempting to secure its energy needs next, then followed by Russia, and finally China.

The speed of movement of Europe, Russia, and China toward attempting to secure its interests in the middle east may rise after 2012 when world oil production may begin contracting substantially. The intervening 5 years may provide a period of relative international calm in which states may be able to come up with alternative energy schemes to extend this period of relative calm and possibly take the middle eastern oil issue off the table with the discovery of energy sources that can fuel global economic expansion without reliance on a non-renewable resource like hydrocarbons.

Here is a great video that shows a world map and the rise and fall of oil production and consumption in major producing and consuming areas. It may be helpful to you in forming your own opinions.